After bringing a warmer, drier winter to much of Canada, the El NiƱoĀ weather event that has gripped the Pacific Ocean and subsequently the world may at last be over.
But scientists say its effects could still linger over Canada before the cooler La NiƱa likely takes effect.
āItās like a teeter-totter going up and down; El NiƱo was going to end at some point in time,ā University of Toronto Mississauga atmospheric physics professor Kent Moore said.
āThen later, in the summer and into the fall La NiƱa will startā¦. The unknown is how extreme itās going to be.ā
El NiƱo is known for warm, above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, while La NiƱa tends to occur after, bringing colder effects. But while both events occur in the Pacific Ocean, the changes they cause in the sea can also impact the atmosphere on a wider scale.
With La NiƱa, for example, greater precipitation and winds may lead to rain storms or even more hurricanes.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says the sea surface has been cooling in the tropical Pacific since December 2023, with what it calls the El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ā describing the switch between the two phases ā to remain neutral until at least July, indicating El NiƱo is over.
āThe change to ENSO neutral conditions means neither El NiƱo nor La NiƱa are active,ā the BOM said Tuesday.
Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips says it may not completely be a done deal, however.
āItās on its way out, but thereās a lag,ā he said.
Phillips told Global News what can happen is the oceans warm up but then the atmosphere doesnāt respond. A number of factors need to be in play, including a shift in wind direction and change of temperature in the deep water.
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But even with El NiƱo potentially over, Canada may not see wide-scale weather impacts during a lull between the two phases.
Moore said impacts of either event typically are seen during the winter, noting the widespread warmer temperatures and less snow this past season. Instead, Canadians will more likely see ālocalā weather events such as thunderstorms.
āI donāt think it will be anomalously different than usual just because itās this phase where what happens with the El NiƱo or La NiƱa doesnāt really have an impact,ā he said.
In Western Canada, however, he expects the lingering dry conditions and possible lack of snowpack will likely fuel wildfires.
āWeāll see the effect of El NiƱo persist into the summer, even though itās actually gone away and thatās just because the dry conditions are probably going to lead to more wildfires in the West,ā he said.
The past several months have seen record-breaking temperatures in Canada due to a mix of increasing greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere and El NiƱo, which can expand the area of warm water and add to the slow warming our climate is seeing, he added.
The country could see a return to slightly cooler temperatures in the next year, however, as La NiƱa is likely ushered in.
Phillips cautions, however, that itās still only a forecast that La NiƱa will take place so itās yet to be seen exactly what will happen.
āWhat weāre seeing is that the temperatures are headed towards that, but itās not as if you would bet the family farm or the fishing fleet on it, because it can also go back,āĀ he said. āIt could all of a sudden turn around and be another El NiƱo.ā
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationās (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said thereās a 60 per cent chance of La NiƱa developing over the summer months. The chances increase in the months after, but itās not a guarantee.
Should we see the switch occur, there is the potential for Atlantic Canadians to see some impact in the coming months as a change to La NiƱa could result in a potentially earlier and more severe hurricane season.
La NiƱa reduces wind shear that typically suppresses hurricanes, and could combine with warmer sea-surface temperatures for a potentially more active season.
Canada wonāt really know the effects of La NiƱaās cold, however, until the winter.
Global meteorologist Ross Hull said earlier this year that while it can be difficult to know the effects for sure, he expects chillier than normal temperatures in the Prairies.
Moore said Tuesday he anticipates a colder and wetter winter in B.C. and Eastern Canada as well, though itās yet to be seen if itāll be rain or snow nor how long the La NiƱa event will last.
ā with files from Global Newsā Naomi Barghiel and Reuters
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